We all know that kind of guessing games: How many candies are in this jar? Which weight has this cow? The question is how you can improve your guess and maybe win the prize. In 1906, Sir Francis Galton noticed that the aggregate judgement of the players, the average of their estimates, closely approximated the true value. This is called the wisdom of crowds. So of course, a good method to win is to form a small group, take the average of the estimates, and share the win in the end. But what to do if you don't want to share? One possibility is that you ask yourself multiple times and take the average of your guesses. This is called the wisdom of the inner crowd. That works best if you let some time pass between the guesses or if your short-term memory is not the best and you tend to forget fast what you guessed before. Unfortunately, there is still a large chance that you will be beaten by any 2-person team. As the paper of Dennie van Dolder and Martijn van den Assem (2017) points out: "The average of a large number of judgements from the same person is barely better than the average of two judgements from different people". So the message of the day: Ask the others and learn to share!
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IdeaI love to increase my general science knowledge by reading papers from different fields of science. Here I share some of them. Archiv
März 2018
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